Lies, Damned Lies, and Santana - Claims Made About Occupy Oakland Crime Rates Specious

City Administrator Santana spoke at the press conference on the morning of November 14, 2011 (after the second raid on Occupy Oakland Commune), and claimed that crime reports were up from that area of the city since Occupy Oakland arrived.

Well, I'm not one to take a statement from a slimy politician at face value, so I crunched some numbers. I used the Crimewatch stats off the City website (http://gismaps.oaklandnet.com/crimewatch/). While a much larger sample would have been better -- a year or two's worth of data, on order to look at seasonal variation, it appears that crimes haven't really changed much at all in the area.

Things are not as they were claimed to be. Let's look and see:

Within a radius of 500 feet of 1 Ogawa Plaza, the following trends of specific crimes were tracked:

Theft: down from 60 days, slightly up from 30 days
Narcotics: down
Vandalism: up
Simple Assault: no change
Disturbing the Peace: no change
Burglary: no change
Vehicle Theft: up
Robbery: down
Murder: up (1)

Within a radius of 1/4 mile of 1 Ogawa Plaza, the following trends of specific crimes were tracked:

Theft: down from 60 days, up from 30 days
Narcotics: down considerably
Vandalism: up 100%
Simple Assault: down from 60 days, up from 30 days
Aggravated Assault: no change from 60 days, up from 30 days
Disturbing the Peace: up from 60 days, same from 30 days
Burglary: up
Vehicle Theft: same from 60 days, up from 30 days
Robbery: down from 60 days, no change from 30 days.
Murder: up (1)
Alcohol: up (1)

The Raw Data

Within 500 feet of 1 Ogawa Plaza

31-60 days before OO

6 - Theft
2 - Narcotics
1 - Vandalism
3 - Simple Assault
1 - Disturbing the Peace
1 - Burglary

1-30 days before OO

2 - Theft
2 - Narcotics
0 - Vandalism
4 - Simple Assault
2 - Disturbing the Peace
1 - Burglary
2 - Vehicle Theft
2 - Robbery

Since OO (30 days)

3 - Theft
0 - Narcotics
3 - Vandalism (2 on strike night)
4 - Simple Assault
2 - Disturbing the Peace
4 - Vehicle Theft
0 - Robbery
1 - Burglary
1 - Murder

Within 1/4 mile of 1 Ogawa Plaza
Aug. 15 through Sep. 15, 2011 (@25-60 days before OO)

29 - Theft
5 - Narcotics
5 - Vandalism
15 - Simple Assault
5 - Aggravated Assault
2 - Disturbing the Peace
2 - Burglary
6 - Vehicle Theft
8 - Robbery

Sep. 16 - Oct. 9, 2011 (@1 - 24 days before OO)

14 - Theft
2 - Narcotics
6 - Vandalism
7 - Simple Assault
3 - Aggravated Assault
5 - Disturbing the Peace
1 - Burglary
3 - Vehicle Theft
4 - Robbery

Oct 10 - Nov. 11, 2011 After OO Began (30 days)

22 - Theft
1 - Narcotics
13 - Vandalism
11 - Simple Assault
5 - Aggravated Assault
4 - Disturbing the Peace
4 - Burglary
6 - Vehicle Theft
4 - Robbery
1 - Murder

The murder did not have anything directly to do with Occupy Oakland. It was the 101st murder in Oakland this year so far. It is unsurprising that there was a murder in the area in the past three months.