Blair and Weapons of Mass Destruction: Regime Change In Britain Needed

Table of British Nuclear Forces, end 1996 | Notes

We estimate the current British stockpile at about 260 of two types. The British stockpile peaked in the mid-1970's at some 350 warheads. We believe it will increase slightly to about 275 warheads of only one type by the turn of the century.

Trident/Vanguard
Construction, training, testing, and sea trials of the Vanguard-class nuclear powered ballistic missile submarine (SSBN) system continue. The subs were designed and built by Vickers Shipbuilding and Engineering. Each displaces about 16,000 tonnes, or twice as much as the Polaris/Resolution-class SSBNs it replaces. The crew has been reduced to 132 officers and men, down from 149 for Polaris.

Each Vanguard-class SSBN carries 16 U.S. produced Trident II D-5 submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs). It has never been publicly stated exactly how many missiles Britain is purchasing from the United States. We estimate the number to be 70, but it should be noted that there are no specifically American or British Trident IIs. There is a pool of SLBMs at Strategic Weapons Facility Atlantic at Kings Bay Submarine Base, Georgia. Britain has title to a certain number of SLBMs but does not actually own them. A missile that is deployed on a U.S. SSBN may at a later date deploy on a British one, or vice versa.

When a Vanguard-class SSBN is ready to enter service it sails to Kings Bay, collects a few missiles, and conducts one or two demonstration/shakedown test firings at the eastern missile range off Cape Canaveral, Florida. When it is ready to deploy, it is loaded with a full complement of missiles sails back to the Royal Naval Armament Depot at Coulport where warheads are mated to the missiles. The first submarine of the class, the HMS Vanguard, went on its first patrol in December 1994. The second, Victorious entered service in December 1995. The third, Vigilant was launched in October 1995 and will enter service in the summer or fall of 1998. The fourth and final sub, Vengeance is under construction. Its estimated launch date is 1998 with service entry in late 2000 or early 2001. The current estimated cost of the program is $18.8 billion.

The first batch of British-made warheads for Trident were completed in September 1992. They were designed by the Atomic Weapons Establishment at Aldermaston and assembled at Aldermaston and Burghfield. The warheads are thought to be similar in size, shape, and yield to the U.S. W76 warhead now on U.S. Trident I and II missiles. Lower yields could be selected by using only the first stage of the weapon.

Earlier, Britain built and deployed four Resolution-class SSBNs--commonly called Polaris submarines after the missiles they carried. The first boat, HMS Resolution, went on patrol in June 1968, the fourth, Revenge, in September 1970. Over 28 years, the four Polaris-subs conducted 229 patrols. Revenge was retired on May 25, 1992, after 56 patrols. Resolution was decommissioned on October 22, 1994 after 61 patrols. Renown was decommissioned on February 24, 1996 after 52 patrols, and Repulse was withdrawn from service on August 28, 1996 after 60 patrols.

We assume that Britain will produce enough warheads for only three boatloads of missiles, as was the case with Polaris. Assuming five warheads per missile, we estimate that 240 warheads for 48 missiles will be produced, plus another 10 percent for spares and maintenance. This would mean a future British stockpile in the 275-warhead range. The Ministry of Defence has announced that, "each submarine will deploy with no more than 96 warheads [i.e., MIRV x 6], and may carry significantly fewer." The number will certainly be lower on some submarines as Trident's "sub-strategic" mission is fully implemented. A MOD official described this mission as follows, "A sub-strategic strike would be the limited and highly selective use of nuclear weapons in a manner that fell demonstrably short of a strategic strike, but with a sufficient level of violence to convince an aggressor who had already miscalculated our resolve and attacked us that he should halt his aggression and withdraw or face the prospect of a devastating strategic strike."

The sub-strategic mission began with Victorious and "will become fully robust when Vigilant enters service", according to the 1996 White Paper. The plan is to put a single warhead on some Trident II SLBMs and have them assigned to targets once covered by WE177 gravity bombs. For example, 10, 12 or 14 of a sub's missiles might carry an average of five warheads each. The other two, four, or six missiles might be armed with just one. Choosing to detonate the unboosted primary could produce a yield of one kiloton or less. Choosing to detonate the boosted primary could produce a yield of a few kilotons. A submarine on the sub-strategic mission would carry about 56-72 warheads during patrol. With this plan, a more accurate future operational stockpile for the fleet would be about 200 warheads. At any given time two submarines with about 120-130 warheads between them would be on patrol. A third boat could put to sea fairly rapidly while the fourth was undergoing overhaul and maintenance.

Tornadoes and the WE177
The Royal Air Force (RAF) has been decreasing its stockpile of nuclear bombs over the past few years, along with the number of aircraft squadrons with nuclear missions. Currently the RAF operates eight squadrons of 12 dual-capable, strike/attack Tornado GR.1/1A. Four squadrons are stationed at Bruggen, Germany (Nos. 9, 14, 17, 31). The three strike/attack Tornado squadrons at Laarbruch, Germany were disbanded between September 1991 and May 1992, and the base will be closed in 1999. Two squadrons previously at Marham were redeployed to Lossiemouth in 1994. They replaced the Buccaneer S2B in the maritime strike role and were redesignated Nos. 12 and 617. Tornado reconnaissance squadrons 2 and 13 are based at Marham. It is likely that a less-than-full complement of nuclear bombs are assigned to the Tornadoes with maritime strike and reconnaissance roles.

The total number of WE177 nuclear gravity bombs produced is estimated to have been about 200, of which 175 were versions A and B. The C version of the WE177 bomb was assigned to selected Royal Navy Sea Harrier FRS.1 aircraft and ASW helicopters. The WE177C existed in both a free-fall and depth-bomb modification. There were an estimated 25 WE177Cs, each with a yield of approximately 10 Kt. These have been retired.