Bloody attacks in Samarra show how Iraqi rebels regroup, survive

A wave of coordinated attacks in the Iraqi city of Samarra on Saturday illustrates the capacity of insurgents to regroup and fight on, and bodes badly for an expected assault on rebel-held Fallujah, analysts said.

"What happened today in Samarra demonstrates perfectly that rebels have the means to reassemble quickly and strike violently," said Abdeljabbar Ahmed, a professor of political science at the University of Baghdad.

At least 33 Iraqis were killed and 48 wounded in four car bombings coupled with clashes against police stations in Samarra, 125 kilometres (80 miles) north of Baghdad.

"When Iraq's government resorts to force we cannot expect a solution," he said.

"The solution rests in dialogue. It is vital that all parties to the conflict gather around the same table and resolve their differences," said Ahmed.

"No matter how many troops are massed outside these so-called rebel cities, the American army and Iraqi forces are unable to restore order in the long-term."

Saturday's violence in Samarra was the bloodiest since US and Iraqi troops stormed the Sunni stronghold to wrest control from the insurgents at the start of October in a two-day operation in which 150 people died.

That assault marked the first major offensive by US forces to reclaim a Sunni rebel bastion ahead of national elections set for next January.

But a US military commander admitted afterwards that many rebel leaders simply went to ground as tension flared in outlying areas south of Samarra.

The US military and US-backed interim Iraqi government of Prime Minister Iyad Allawi have since set their sights of the insurgent heartland of Fallujah and neighbouring Ramadi, west of Baghdad, where they believe some 2,000 to 2,500 rebel fighters are holed up, many loyal to Iraq's most wanted man Abu Musab al-Zarqawi.

Allawi has issued an ultimatum to the city to surrender the insurgents or face a military assault. Residents insist that Zarqawi and his group, blamed for some of the worst bloodshed to scar the country, are not there.

"It is futile to follow the same tactic as Samarra in Fallujah, because it will produce exactly the same result," said Ahmed.

"Such a policy, if it were to continue, risks sparking a civil war," he warned.

Political analyst Hussein al-Ukayli said that the government never really reclaimed Samarra from the insurgents.

"The offensive in October weakened the fighters but it is impossible to eradicate them completely," Ukayli said.

"Saturday's attacks prove that a military solution does not produce the desired results. On the contrary, it exacerbates the divisions in the country and the violence," he said.

"The daily raids and arrests show that US and Iraqi forces are constantly searching for fighters," he said, explaining that Iraq's rebels were able to reorganise themselves rapidly thanks to the "solidarity" of the Sunni bastions.

Several thousand US troops have massed around Fallujah since mid-October and the city has been the target of constant air strikes on what the military says are suspected rebel hideouts. The US military is also doubling its manpower in neighbouring Ramadi to 2,000.

On Saturday, US forces pounded suspected rebel targets in Fallujah while 20 US soldiers were wounded in action in neighbouring Ramadi.

"Declarations by the United States and the Iraqi government that the Samarra offensive was a success are merely aimed at the media. They refuse to acknowledge the ongoing violence," Ukayli said.

"US troops can easily take Fallujah, but can they restore order? Definitely not, they simply create pockets of insecurity across the country," he said.

"It is vital that the Iraqi government learns from its mistakes and this time around it is a political solution that must be found."

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