The change of strategy

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The change of strategy
by Felix Feistel

This article posted on 12/10/2024 is translated from the German on the Internet, https://www.manova.news/artikel/der-strategiewechsel.]

The renewed escalation in Syria must be seen in the context of the Russian victories and the test of the Oreschnik medium-range missile.
After provocations by the West with ATACMS and Storm Shadow missiles, Russia has spoken a word of power with the test of the Oreschnik. In the territory of Ukraine, the West seems to meekly accept Russia’s victories for the time being. Nevertheless, it continues to put Russia under pressure and is now opening up another front in Syria, targeting Russia’s allies in the Middle East and Russia’s presence in the region — and thus, in the long term, China as well. It is an attempt to suppress the emerging multipolarity, which is now being carried out at the expense of the Syrian people.

by Felix Feistel

[This article posted on 12/10/2024 is translated from the German on the Internet, https://www.manova.news/artikel/der-strategiewechsel.]

Russia and Ukraine
In November, the West escalated the war in Ukraine with breathtaking speed. After Donald Trump was elected as the new President of the United States — and thus the only candidate who had previously promised to end the war in Ukraine — the Biden regime increased the stakes enormously. The incumbent president, or rather the forces behind him — because let’s be honest: a demented old man like that, who talks to people who have been dead for years and most of the time doesn’t even understand where he is, also doesn’t know what is currently happening in Ukraine have allowed Ukraine to attack targets far inside Russia’s heartland with the ATACMS missiles (US ground-based, ballistic short-range missile system) that have been delivered for some time.

And that is exactly what happened just a few hours later. Several ATACMS missiles were fired in the direction of Kursk, although according to Russian information, only two of the missiles reached their target. The fact that the Russian government disclosed this information in as much detail as it subsequently did is an interesting signal to the West: because, as it had already been stated, the shelling of Russian heartland was considered a red line. And that is perfectly understandable. The US ATACMS missiles cannot be operated by Ukraine alone without Western help. Entering their target coordinates is not that easy and also requires data from Western reconnaissance satellites.

In fact, it is Western, usually US, soldiers who fire these missiles at Russia, thereby committing a direct act of war against Russia. So it is the West that is directly firing on Russia, with Ukraine serving only as a launching pad.

The same applies to the British Storm Shadow (an airborne, long-range, high-precision cruise missile) and the French SCALP missiles (a high-precision air-to-ground cruise missile family based on the British Storm Shadow missile), which were also released shortly afterwards. At least Storm Shadow was soon pointed at Russia as well. The West is trying to force an escalation of the conflict by any means necessary. And the Russian government is fully aware of this.

This is the reason for the change in Russian nuclear doctrine, which Vladimir Putin also signed in November.

The new nuclear doctrine now stipulates that Russia can also respond with nuclear weapons to non-nuclear attacks if the attack originates from a state that receives support from a nuclear power. This applies to Ukraine, which is supported by three nuclear powers: Great Britain, France and the United States, which coordinate and basically carry out their attacks. This was a clear warning to the West.

Any attack from Ukraine on Russia carried out by any of these powers could provoke a nuclear counterstrike — and it is not clear against whom this strike would be directed. However, this nuclear doctrine has not dampened the West’s ambitions. They declared that they were prepared for a nuclear war. German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock boasted that they would not be intimidated by Russia.

So Moscow sent another warning, one that this time did not miss its target: the Russian army tested a newly developed hypersonic medium-range missile in direct combat, christened Oreschnik (Russian Орешник) — hazel bush. As Russian President Putin later explained, the new weapon reaches a speed of Mach 10 — others even claim a speed of Mach 11, i.e. eleven times the speed of sound — and therefore cannot be intercepted by any air defense system. To make matters worse, the Oreschnik’s flight path cannot be calculated.

These Oreschnik missiles represent a completely new milestone in military technology. Not only can the missile carry up to 36 warheads and, if necessary, be equipped with nuclear warheads, The real novelty is that it does not even have to be equipped with warheads. The speed in combination with the mass of the projectiles alone generates such a high kinetic energy that a destructive effect equal to an explosion occurs upon impact. This is comparable to the impact of a meteorite, which can also be destructive without any explosive devices. This weapon is so scalable that it can have the same consequences as a tactical nuclear weapon — but without the annoying fallout, which spreads uncontrollably and can kill people for years to come.

In a way, the Oreschnik missile makes nuclear weapons redundant, but it also lowers the threshold for their use. Russia has also demonstrated its superiority in materials science. The West’s attempts to develop similar systems have failed due to the conditions to which such weapons are exposed when used. For example, surface temperatures of up to 2,000 degrees Celsius occur during flight through the atmosphere, comparable to the temperatures to which space shuttles are exposed when re-entering the atmosphere. In addition, plasma is created around the flying object. Western attempts to make such technology operational for the military have resulted in projectiles that are far too large. Russia appears to have solved the problem with the help of new materials that are not available to the West. Putin also announced the serial production of such projectiles, thereby demonstrating military superiority in this area. It was also emphasized that the missiles could reach any capital city in Europe within minutes.

The warning seems to have been heeded in the West. Since the deployment of the “Hazel”, not a single attack with Western medium-range missiles has been reported. Not only have none of them been fired at Russian heartland, but no deployment has been reported at all. A sense of helplessness seems to have emerged among NATO states in the face of Russia’s new potential. The West, especially Germany, has rushed to assure Ukraine of new support. But this is primarily about money. Germany still does not deliver any Taurus cruise missiles.

Middle East
The situation in the Middle East must now be viewed in this context. Even before the latest developments, Israel’s genocide against the Palestinians, its war against Hezbollah in Lebanon and its attacks on Iran and Syria could be regarded as a further battleground in the new, third world war. Israel is a puppet of the United States and Great Britain, which is seeking to secure its dominance in West Asia and to have a military base from which it can carry out attacks in the region. In Syria, Russia and the United States are confronting each other; Iran is an ally of Russia, and has recently become part of the BRICS and other interstate formats with Russia and China. Iran is also Israel’s major antagonist, arming Hamas as well as Hezbollah and the Houthis and using them as proxies against Israel. In addition, there are a number of militias and rebel organizations, for example in Iraq, which also side with Iran or at least against the USA and Israel.

The US has been trying for years to bring about regime change in Syria and overthrow Syrian President Bashar Hafiz al-Assad. To do so, they used Islamist organizations, such as al-Qaeda and the Taliban, from which new groups repeatedly emerged, constantly changing their names, such as IS (ISIS, ISIL, Daesh).

These ignited a war in Syria that is being sold to us here in the West as a “civil war” or a “revolution”, but which is in fact an external attack. Since 2020, the situation in Syria had been frozen. The jihadists only held a small part of Syria around Idlib, some Turkish-backed groups controlled regions in the north; and there was still a large area in the northeast where the Kurds had established a kind of self-organized soviet republic.

Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), which had only controlled the region around Idlib for a few years, is an offshoot of al-Qaeda and al-Nusra, whose leader, Abu Mohammed al-Jaulani, first belonged to al-Qaeda and later to ISIS, but in recent years has distanced himself from both organizations and allegedly even fought them. Although the CIA has put a 10 million US dollar price on his head, he is already being referred to as a “progressive jihadist” by Western media and the jihadists of HTS as “moderate rebels”, although they continue to be listed as a terrorist organization and pursue jihadist, Islamist goals.

In the past, HTS fighters have been known for their cruelty, for example through torture or executions in which they cut off prisoners’ heads — a practice that has also been used in recent days. The distancing from al-Qaeda and IS can be seen as a superficial PR campaign to support the Western narrative of the “moderate rebels”. Al-Dschoulani did, after all, study PR, even if he never graduated. However, rivalries between the individual organizations and their leaders are also conceivable.

Shortly after the Oreschnik rocket demonstration, Israel agreed to a ceasefire with Hezbollah — only to expand its attacks on Syria. At the same time, the jihadists in Idlib launched a new offensive towards Aleppo and took the city within a very short time. They then moved on to Hama, a city that was also evacuated by the Syrian army after a short time and was conquered by the jihadists. The jihadists acted together with the Turkish-backed militias. Pictures emerged of fighters raising Turkish flags in captured towns and villages, and there were reports of vehicles with Turkish license plates turning up shortly afterwards.

The Syrian government asked Russia and Iran for help. Russia, which has a military presence in the country, immediately began bombing jihadist positions. Iraqi militias also crossed the border into Syria to fight alongside the Syrian government. The Secretary General of Hezbollah, Naim Qassem, announced that he would also send in fighters. He also emphasized that the United States and Israel were behind the new attack. This is also confirmed by the “rebels” themselves, who apparently declared that they love Israel.

In addition, they have been armed by the United States with billions of dollars’ worth of weapons, and have been doing so for years, starting with about $500 million in equipment and training under Barack Obama. In addition, the US supported the “rebels” over ten years ago with medical assistance and air strikes. The US hoped to overthrow Bashar al-Assad and push back Iranian influence from Syria, which was ultimately successful. Syria is also home to Russia’s only Mediterranean port, which the US wants to eliminate. It is hardly surprising that the jihadists were supported in their advance via the US military base at-Tanf in the southeast of the country, the triangle where Syria, Iraq and Jordan meet. Here, Iraqi and Jordanian Islamists crossed the border and advanced from the US-controlled area towards Damascus.

The fact that the West supported the advance is also shown by the fact that al-Jaulani was interviewed by the US-based CNN channel while the fighting was still going on, where he was able to explain his plans to overthrow Assad and create “Islamic institutions”. HTS was also praised in the British press and presented as a heroic rebel organization fighting against the dark dictator al-Assad.

Surprisingly, the German press, on the other hand, referred to jihadists and Islamists. In addition, shortly after the Syrian president fled, the UN Special Envoy for Syria, Geir Pedersen, stated that the fighters in Syria could be removed from the international terrorist list. There is also close coordination between US troops in the region and all parties, as Daniel Shapiro, Deputy US Secretary of Defense, explained. US soldiers would remain in the country, ostensibly to fight IS. There is a close connection between the West and the jihadists.

The West, and the US in particular, had encouraged and supported the recent advance of the Islamist groups. This is evident not least from the fact that the US has emphasized from the outset that it had nothing to do with the whole affair.

The aim of the jihadists’ new offensive in Syria is to open a new front against Russia and its allies. The fact that there is a connection to Ukraine is also shown by the involvement of Ukrainian combat units, which supported the jihadists’ attack by means of drones.

In addition, the US military supported the jihadists by flying attacks on Iraqi militias that rushed to the aid of the Syrian government. Israel, in turn, threatened Iran with air strikes if it sent support because of the possibility that Tehran would supply new weapons to Lebanon. The jihadists quickly advanced on Homs and the Lebanese border, which makes clear the Israeli interest in the advance: to cut the land connection between Iran and Lebanon in order to isolate Hezbollah. This is intended to weaken Iran’s dominant position in the region. This was achieved over the weekend of December 7–8, with Homs falling first and Damascus later.

Turkey, for its part, has proved that it stands firmly by NATO’s side despite its differences with Israel by supporting the advance of the militias. Turkey is also pursuing its own goals in Syria, which include at least a buffer zone in the Syrian north to repel the Kurdish independence fighters and separate them from Turkish territory. Fighting therefore repeatedly breaks out between the Turkish-backed militias and the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF).

The Syrian government quickly withdrew from many regions in the north, leaving a power vacuum that was filled not only by the jihadists in the northwest, but also by ISIS, which previously still controlled only a few small areas. ISIS quickly announced new conquests and victories. The Kurds are also taking action against them and are the only faction fighting them at all. As events unfolded, there were conflicting reports about the Kurds, who were either allied with the jihadists or with the Syrian army; nothing is clear. What is clear is that both the Kurds and the Turkish militias are supported by the US and that both are fighting each other.

The Kurds also control parts of Aleppo, but they appear to be unharmed by the jihadists there. In the east, on the other hand, they are fighting together with the US against Iraqi militias. After the jihadists took over Syria, the US warned against further action against the Kurds.

In the south of the country, south of Damascus and near the Israeli border, there were also clashes between the Syrian army and militias of unclear origin. However, a connection to Israel is obvious. Israel shares the common concern with Turkey, the US and NATO to weaken Russia and to persuade it to make concessions in Ukraine. In addition, the country pursues the idea of a Greater Israel, which also includes parts of Syria, and also seeks to push Iran out of the region. Shortly after al-Assad fled, Israel invaded Syria. Apparently, ground troops as well as military equipment such as tanks and combat vehicles were used.

Israel also repeatedly carries out air strikes. The official explanation for this is the threat posed to Israel by Islamists. The fact that these are a phantom is shown by the statements of the jihadists that they love Israel. The attacks are thus aimed more at Hezbollah in Syria and possibly at the creation of a greater Israel. The West as a whole seems to be hoping to overstretch Russia’s forces in Syria and possibly also in the Caucasus, so that Russia will either have to abandon its allies and suffer heavy defeats or agree to a freezing of the conflict in Ukraine in order to then be able to concentrate its forces in the Middle East.

However, this attempt could backfire, because the new jihadist offensive is making Moscow realize that a frozen conflict is a time bomb. Anything less than a victory in Ukraine would only give Russia and the West the opportunity to rearm and then strike, just as the jihadists did in Syria. It is therefore quite possible that precisely this has greatly reduced Russia’s willingness to engage in negotiations and compromise.

So all this is not about Syria. Syria is just another battleground that the West, including Israel and Turkey, has opened against the emerging powers of Russia, Iran and also China in order to suppress the multi-polar order.

It is unlikely that this will succeed, at least in the long term. The situation in Syria, on the other hand, has developed devastatingly for both the Syrian government and its allies Russia and Iran. Bashar al-Assad fled to Russia over the weekend, although there were initially reports of a possible crash of his plane. Before that, he addressed his government and the jihadists, calling for a peaceful change of government. Syrian Prime Minister Mohammad Ghasi al-Jalali has prepared the handover of government business.

Al-Jalali left the question of what would happen to the Russian military bases in the hands of the future government. The jihadists initially declared that they would guarantee the security of the Russian bases and diplomatic missions. However, the Iranian embassy was stormed by the jihadists on Sunday and looted. At present, it is unclear which course the country will take. Will Western interests prevail or will the “rebels” retain a certain independence, perhaps defined by their religion?

If Syria falls into the hands of a Western-controlled puppet government, Russia will be pushed back from the region. If at the same time the new “Georgian Maidan” is successful and Armenia turns more and more away from Russia and towards the West, then the direct axis between Russia and Iran will also be interrupted. And this is already happening, as evidenced by the statement of Armenian Prime Minister Pashinyan, who said that Armenia no longer considers itself part of the CSTO (Collective Security Treaty Organization, a military alliance between several post-Soviet states).

This is one of the main reasons for the Western involvement in the Caucasus. The defeat of the Assad government could also sever the link between Iran and Lebanon, thereby isolating Hezbollah — and thus weakening it enormously. This, in turn, plays into the hands of the US plan to overthrow not only Iraq and Afghanistan, but also Syria and Lebanon — and eventually Iran. It is therefore not surprising that Hezbollah has been very active in Syria, alongside the government, nor that Iran has interfered.

Currently, the situation is developing to the great disadvantage of Russia and Iran. It remains to be seen what will happen next and whether there is a way to turn the tide. However, it is becoming apparent that the West has realized that it has reached an impasse with its provocations in Ukraine. Therefore, it is now changing its strategy and expanding the battlefield against Russia.

Despite its military successes in Ukraine, the country remains under pressure. This shows the vehemence with which the US-led West is determined to crush Russia. And what is directed against Russia and Iran is, in the medium term, also directed against China. The geopolitical struggle for supremacy seems to have entered a new phase.

As always, the people who will suffer are the ordinary people in the region. Although many Syrians celebrated the fall of al-Assad, there are already reports of strict religious orders from the new rulers, such as the compulsory veiling of women. The Christian communities in the region are also now at risk. Ultimately, the fall of the Syrian government is also not good news for the Palestinians, whose obliteration is a possibility given the support that Turkey and the Gulf States are providing to the rebels.

Furthermore, Lebanon is next on the US wish list for regime change. The small country and Hezbollah are now perhaps isolated from their biggest ally, Iran, and — depending on which side HTS chooses to support — surrounded by enemies. The fight against Israel has weakened Hezbollah, and without Iranian support, the country could quickly fall. Then Iran will be the big final target of the US geostrategists. Whether it comes to that remains to be seen.

In all this, there are also those who believe that the events in Syria, as in Ukraine, are part of a big game played by the world financial elite, who are preparing for the global takeover by means of wars, crises and regime changes. Here, the Ukraine-Russia conflict also plays only a role in the world theater in preparation for the global, digital dictatorship, and even Russian President Vladimir Putin only fulfills a function in the service of the global clients. Even if this version is not excluded, it is still only speculation, supported by little tangible evidence. But it is always conceivable.

Felix Feistel, born in 1992, studied law with a focus on international and European law. He worked as a journalist during his studies and has been working full-time as a freelance journalist and author since his state examination. He writes for manova.news, apolut.net, multipolar-magazin.de and on his own Telegram channel. Training as a trauma therapist according to the Identity-Oriented Psycho-traumatology and Therapy (IoPT), in which he also works, has broadened his understanding of the background to world events.
December 29, 2024