Background on the HTS-led offensive around Aleppo, Syria

Syria is a very complex situation. If you are confused that is ok. I’m going to try to explain a few things regarding who is involved and what it could mean.

The anti government offensive recently was started by Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). HTS split from Al-Qaeda in 2016. The commander of HTS at the time of the attack was Abu Muhammad al-Jolani. He also was the head of Al Nusra Front (Al Qaeda in Syria). You will see many people now echoing the claim that HTS has become more “moderate” - the only reason they needed to give this disclaimer to begin with is due to the egregious war crimes and ethnic cleansing they have engaged with in the past. Even just recently we’ve seen HTS targeting both religious and ethnic minorities. Saying this does not take away from disgusting war crimes and massacres the regime has committed. Two things can be true. Turkey also plays a big role in this but more on that later.

In addition to the attack headed by HTS, there is another battle going on as the Syrian National Army (Turkey funded Syrian rebel umbrella organization) has been mainly targeting Kurdish forces (SDF/YPG) in north Halab (Aleppo). Most of the SNA groups have been focused on targeting the Kurds, but at least 3 SNA battalions have been involved in HTS led attacks against Assad.

SDF is the Syrian Democratic Forces, which is a coalition that includes the YPG (The People’s Defense Units, or People’s Protection Units) and YPJ (Women's Protection Units/Women’s Defense Units). You will also see many people talking about DAANES or AANES, which stands for the Decentralized Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria, which is also known as Rojava. YPJ was formed after so many women joined YPG, the women decided to form their own unit- which is entirely autonomous. Many peoples skepticism of YPG comes from them working with US forces to fight Daesh, but that’s a whole other story. They have also recently seemingly surrendered in certain regions to HTS/SNA leaving many people who fled for safety in more vulnerable and unsafe conditions.

Syrian Armed Forces, or Syrian Arab Armed Forces (SAF/SAAF) is the regimes military. There are also *many* other groups involved, including ethnic and religious militias both opposed to the regime and on the side of the regime.

Not long into the Syrian revolution, progressive forces were being targeted and quickly eradicated. As dissent of the people was being crushed by the regime and their allies, militant salafi factions became the most prominent force (such as Al Nusra)

As this was happening, Russia and hezbollah were helping Assad. Syria is the primary supply route to Iran, so it was (is) important for hezb to maintain that. (more on this later)

Following the siege of Mosul in Iraq, the IS (Islamic State, aka ISIL (Islamic state of iraq and the Levant) aka Daesh) was able to cross into Syria. At the time, the United States was aware of this and intentionally let them enter. A destabilized and terrorized Syria is good for western interests. The IS wreaked havoc on and terrorized our country and people and took major advantage of Syrias vulnerability during the war. The IS still has a fairly strong presence in eastern Syria. The ideology lingers, and the instability just makes it easier for them to recruit.

So already we have a lot going on and a lot of people and groups involved. Iraq, Lebanon, Palestine, Russia, turkey, Iran, the US, Israel… there’s even more that I haven’t mentioned. they’re all a part of this. and already we have so many motivations and self interests, many of which are conflicting, and many of which align. It’s actually so complex that it’s not uncommon to see groups strategically work with their enemies on an operation against a shared enemy.

It’s so hard to say what will happen, and things change so fast. But the outcome of this could have massive repercussions. Not just regionally, but globally.

Let’s say HTS successfully takes over Syria after expelling Assad… the dangers religious extremism can impose are endless. As I mentioned earlier, Al Nusra and other religious extremist militias treated ethnic and religious minorities terribly and took part in ethnic cleansing. We will likely see what little ethnic and religious minorities are left in Syria flee the country. Many already have. Just as they did during the civil war. Sectarian hatred is already a big problem. Via its proxies within the country (SNA, HTS), turkey would also expand its power in Syria… this could include crushing Kurdish forces with the ultimate goal of occupying more Syrian territory. With all that is happening regionally, there is a power imbalance, and Turkey is fully exploiting the situation.

Then there’s the question of what will happen in eastern Syria where IS still has a large presence. Depending on how things play out, there’s a chance we see the IS taking over parts of Syria. If there is a resurrection of the Islamic State in eastern Syria, there’s also a chance this spills across the border into Iraq.

If HTS takes over, the ability to transport weapons from Iran through Syria on land is gone. And they can’t do this by plane in Lebanon or Palestine… so this, as you can imagine, also has devastating consequences for Lebanon and Palestine, in addition to Iran, and is a wonderful thing for Israel. Syria is a crucial ally to Iran as the country is a crucial ally to the axis of resistance against Israel and the west. The US/Israel get to isolate hezb. If they succeed in this isolation, they also succeed in further destabilizing Lebanon and a high likelihood of civil and/or religiously motivated tension in the future for an already vulnerable and unstable country.

Anyways, this is just some context and info on what’s currently happening in Syria and what it could mean. I don’t want what’s happening to overshadow the beginning of the Syrian revolution- which was about democracy and fighting a fascist regime. The revolution was a grassroots movement against a ruling elite. It was a movement of the people. The revolution gradually became more and more repressed and brushed off as it became a proxy war and was infiltrated with religious extremists who are not seeking liberation for all. People standing up to tyranny were tortured to death by the regime. We need to hold them in our memories and not let them be overshadowed by those with violent self serving interests. Religious allegiance will never bring liberation for all.

Power and solidarity to all the people of Syria always 🖤