Israel: Beginning of the End

Contrary to Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu’s bellicose July 24 speech before a joint session of the United States Congress pledging to achieve “total victory” over Hamas, Israel is being decisively defeated – militarily, economically and as a society.

On the battlefield — despite Israel’s genocidal campaign of bombing, mass starvation and assassinations — the prospect of victory over Hamas and Hezbollah is now seriously disputed by many of Israel’s former and current military and intelligence officials.

“The country really is galloping towards the edge of an abyss…losing more and more soldiers as they get killed or wounded,” wrote former General Yitzhak Brik in 𝑯𝒂𝒂𝒓𝒆𝒕𝒛:

“…𝙀𝙫𝙚𝙧𝙮 𝙥𝙖𝙨𝙨𝙞𝙣𝙜 𝙙𝙖𝙮 𝙩𝙝𝙚 𝙄𝙨𝙧𝙖𝙚𝙡 𝘿𝙚𝙛𝙚𝙣𝙘𝙚 𝙁𝙤𝙧𝙘𝙚 𝙜𝙧𝙤𝙬𝙨 𝙬𝙚𝙖𝙠𝙚𝙧 𝙖𝙣𝙙 𝙩𝙝𝙚 𝙣𝙪𝙢𝙗𝙚𝙧 𝙤𝙛 𝙙𝙚𝙖𝙙 𝙖𝙣𝙙 𝙬𝙤𝙪𝙣𝙙𝙚𝙙 𝙞𝙣 𝙖𝙘𝙩𝙞𝙤𝙣 𝙖𝙢𝙤𝙣𝙜 𝙤𝙪𝙧 𝙨𝙤𝙡𝙙𝙞𝙚𝙧𝙨 𝙧𝙞𝙨𝙚𝙨…𝙄𝙛 𝙬𝙚 𝙘𝙤𝙣𝙩𝙞𝙣𝙪𝙚 𝙛𝙞𝙜𝙝𝙩𝙞𝙣𝙜 𝙞𝙣 𝙂𝙖𝙯𝙖 𝙗𝙮 𝙧𝙖𝙞𝙙𝙞𝙣𝙜 𝙖𝙣𝙙 𝙧𝙚-𝙧𝙖𝙞𝙙𝙞𝙣𝙜 𝙩𝙝𝙚 𝙨𝙖𝙢𝙚 𝙩𝙖𝙧𝙜𝙚𝙩𝙨, 𝙣𝙤𝙩 𝙤𝙣𝙡𝙮 𝙬𝙤𝙣’𝙩 𝙬𝙚 𝙗𝙧𝙞𝙣𝙜 𝙃𝙖𝙢𝙖𝙨 𝙩𝙤 𝙘𝙤𝙡𝙡𝙖𝙥𝙨𝙚, 𝙗𝙪𝙩 𝙬𝙚’𝙡𝙡 𝙘𝙤𝙡𝙡𝙖𝙥𝙨𝙚 𝙤𝙪𝙧𝙨𝙚𝙡𝙫𝙚𝙨.”

Brik’s assessment is shared by other top Israeli officials. “It’s evident that we are unequivocally losing [the war]” former Mossad deputy chief Ram Ben-Barak told Israel public radio. “Show me one thing we have succeeded in?”

And according to Major General Gadi Shamni, a former commander of the Israeli military’s Gaza division, “Our soldiers are winning every tactical encounter with Hamas, but we’re losing the war, and in a big way.”

Even Israel’s own military propagandists are countering the Netanyahu government’s narrative:

“The idea that it is possible to destroy Hamas, to make Hamas vanish — that is throwing sand in the eyes of the public,” said Israeli military spokesman Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari. “Hamas is an idea, deeply rooted in the hearts of the residents of Gaza.”

Former U.S. Marine intelligence officer Scott Ritter describes the unsustainable battle on the ground: “[Israel’s] army is exhausted,” he says, “their tanks are broken down, they’re running out of spare parts, they’re running out of ammunition…Their army is demoralised…the desertion rate is now between 12 and 24 percent.”

Official figures for dead and wounded soldiers in Gaza (almost certainly an undercount) are beginning to leak out. In an interview on Israel’s Channel 12, Knesset opposition leader Yair Lapid said that 890 soldiers had been killed and 11,000 injured in the first 12 months of the war.

𝐁𝐚𝐭𝐭𝐥𝐞-𝐇𝐚𝐫𝐝𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐇𝐞𝐳𝐛𝐨𝐥𝐥𝐚𝐡

The casualties are also mounting in southern Lebanon as Israeli soldiers encounter a battle-hardened foe.

“Hezbollah has had 18 years to prepare for this,” says Ritter. “Nothing Israel is doing is taking Hezbollah by surprise. They know what kind of weapon systems they have and they’re going to lure Israel in and kill them … Israel is going to walk into one trap after another.”

Increasingly, public support within Israel is eroding as news reports pour out about soldiers’ funerals and grieving families.

“The government is portraying the string of recent military successes in the Gaza Strip, the West Bank and Lebanon as proof that its strategy has been right and that the war must continue on every front,” writes Amos Harel in 𝙃𝙖𝙖𝙧𝙚𝙩𝙯. “But in reality, it’s impossible to ignore the price that continuing the war for much longer would entail.”

On top of mounting military casualties, that price includes the disastrous economic toll as thousands flee their homes, businesses shut their doors and the consumer economy shrinks.

Hamas and Hezbollah shelling in the south and north has displaced an estimated 200,000 Israelis from their homes; foreign labourers are exiting the country and the cancellation of 150,000 Palestinian work permits in the West Bank has brought construction to a standstill.

Tourism, a mainstay of Israel’s economy, has come to a halt and spending on leisure and entertainment has dropped by 70 percent. An estimated 60,000 Israeli firms have failed this year, Israel’s credit ratings have been downgraded multiple times, technology companies are moving overseas and roughly half a million Israelis (many educated high tech professionals) left the country during the first six months of the war.

This trend is not just an economic catastrophe for Israel – the mass exodus is an existential threat to the very survival of the Israeli state that has been premised on maintaining a Jewish majority since its founding.

That was the intention behind the 1948 Nakba (catastrophe) that drove 750,000 Arabs out of Palestine and the privately acknowledged goal of Israel’s genocidal war in Gaza. Now, the demographic trend is beginning to shift in the other direction.

Internally, in the face of impending military and economic collapse Israel is on the verge of civil war. Even before Oct. 7, hundreds of thousands of Israelis took to the streets to protest attempts by Netanyahu’s right wing coalition to abolish the independence of the judiciary.

Since the start of the war, the country has been rocked by mass demonstrations of furious hostage families and their supporters; soldiers who are defecting or refusing to serve; war zone evacuees unable to return to their homes and a growing schism between the Israeli government and the military over the goals of the war.

“Imagine what will happen when the masses take to the streets,” 𝑯𝒂𝒂𝒓𝒆𝒕𝒛 journalist Uri Misgav presciently warned a few months into the war:

“…𝙥𝙧𝙤𝙩𝙚𝙨𝙩𝙚𝙧𝙨 𝙬𝙞𝙡𝙡 𝙗𝙚 𝙥𝙧𝙚𝙨𝙚𝙣𝙩𝙚𝙙 𝙖𝙨 𝙩𝙧𝙖𝙞𝙩𝙤𝙧𝙨 𝙨𝙩𝙖𝙗𝙗𝙞𝙣𝙜 𝙩𝙝𝙚 𝙣𝙖𝙩𝙞𝙤𝙣 𝙖𝙣𝙙 𝙞𝙩𝙨 𝙨𝙤𝙡𝙙𝙞𝙚𝙧𝙨 𝙞𝙣 𝙩𝙝𝙚 𝙗𝙖𝙘𝙠…𝙏𝙝𝙚 𝙨𝙩𝙧𝙚𝙚𝙩𝙨 𝙬𝙞𝙡𝙡 𝙗𝙚 𝙖𝙛𝙡𝙖𝙢𝙚. 𝘼𝙛𝙩𝙚𝙧 𝙖𝙡𝙡, 𝙩𝙝𝙚 𝙘𝙤𝙪𝙣𝙩𝙧𝙮 𝙝𝙖𝙨 𝙗𝙚𝙚𝙣 𝙛𝙡𝙤𝙤𝙙𝙚𝙙 𝙬𝙞𝙩𝙝 𝙖𝙪𝙩𝙤𝙢𝙖𝙩𝙞𝙘 𝙬𝙚𝙖𝙥𝙤𝙣𝙨 𝙖𝙣𝙙 𝙜𝙪𝙣𝙨 𝙙𝙞𝙨𝙩𝙧𝙞𝙗𝙪𝙩𝙚𝙙 𝙖𝙡𝙤𝙣𝙜 𝙥𝙤𝙡𝙞𝙩𝙞𝙘𝙖𝙡 𝙡𝙞𝙣𝙚𝙨 [𝙖 𝙧𝙚𝙛𝙚𝙧𝙚𝙣𝙘𝙚 𝙩𝙤 𝙎𝙚𝙘𝙪𝙧𝙞𝙩𝙮 𝙈𝙞𝙣𝙞𝙨𝙩𝙚𝙧 𝙄𝙩𝙖𝙢𝙖𝙧 𝘽𝙚𝙣-𝙂𝙫𝙞𝙧’𝙨 𝙝𝙖𝙣𝙙𝙞𝙣𝙜 𝙤𝙪𝙩 𝙩𝙝𝙤𝙪𝙨𝙖𝙣𝙙𝙨 𝙤𝙛 𝙜𝙪𝙣𝙨 𝙩𝙤 𝙞𝙡𝙡𝙚𝙜𝙖𝙡 𝙅𝙚𝙬𝙞𝙨𝙝 𝙨𝙚𝙩𝙩𝙡𝙚𝙧𝙨 𝙤𝙣 𝙩𝙝𝙚 𝙒𝙚𝙨𝙩 𝘽𝙖𝙣𝙠]…𝘿𝙚𝙢𝙤𝙘𝙧𝙖𝙩𝙞𝙘 𝙄𝙨𝙧𝙖𝙚𝙡 𝙞𝙨 𝙖𝙥𝙥𝙧𝙤𝙖𝙘𝙝𝙞𝙣𝙜 𝙩𝙝𝙚 𝙩𝙚𝙨𝙩 𝙤𝙛 𝙞𝙩𝙨 𝙡𝙞𝙛𝙚. 𝙄𝙛 𝙬𝙚 𝙙𝙤𝙣’𝙩 𝙬𝙞𝙣 𝙞𝙩, 𝙬𝙚 𝙨𝙞𝙢𝙥𝙡𝙮 𝙬𝙤𝙣’𝙩 𝙗𝙚.”

Misgav’s dystopian prophesy is now unfolding; Israel is collapsing from within while externally it has become a pariah state in the eyes of the world.

Mass demonstrations against Israel’s genocidal war have exploded across the Global South and in major cities in the West as the entire international community watches in horror at Israel’s genocidal bombing and mass starvation of Gaza’s civilian population.

Twenty eight countries in Africa and Latin America have cut all ties with Israel and the U.N. General Assembly recently voted 170 to 6 for a resolution “reaffirming the right of the Palestinian people to self-determination, including the right to their independent State of Palestine.”

And now, the International Criminal Court, recognised by 124 countries, has ordered arrest warrants on Thursday for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and former Defence Minister Yoav Gallant for “war crimes” and “crimes against humanity.”

Although the Israel and the United States reject the ICC arrest warrants, unconditional support from Israel’s staunchest allies is no longer certain according to Scott Ritter. “That which made Israel attractive to the United States — the strategic advantage of pro-American Jewish enclave in a sea of Arab uncertainty — no longer holds as firmly as it previously did,” writes Ritter in Consortium News.

“The Cold War is long gone,” he says, “and the geopolitical benefits accrued in the U.S.-Israeli relationship are no longer evident … the United States, in the end, will not commit suicide on behalf of an Israeli state that has lost all moral legitimacy in the eyes of most of the world.”

Twenty years ago, former Knesset Speaker Avrum Burg ominously warned of the inevitability of Israel’s defeat.

“It turns out that the 2,000-year struggle for Jewish survival comes down to a state of settlements, run by an amoral clique of corrupt lawbreakers who are deaf both to their citizens and to their enemies. A state lacking justice cannot survive.”

As Burg forewarned, we are witnessing the beginning of the end of Israel — a state created nearly eight decades ago following a non-binding United Nations resolution. Defeat may come in months or it may take years by which time the next generation of Palestinian resistance fighters will have grown larger, stronger and fiercer.

Like every guerrilla war from Algeria to Vietnam, the Palestinians will win the political struggle for liberation as Israel implodes from within.

Today, Donald Trump and his rabidly Zionist cabinet appointees may draw out Israel’s offensive but they won’t fundamentally change the calculus. In the foreseeable future, Israel will cease to exist as a nation, hopefully replaced by a secular, democratic state where Palestinians and Jewish citizens will be able to live side by side in peace.

𝐒𝐭𝐞𝐟𝐚𝐧 𝐌𝐨𝐨𝐫𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐚𝐧 𝐀𝐦𝐞𝐫𝐢𝐜𝐚𝐧-𝐀𝐮𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐚𝐥𝐢𝐚𝐧 𝐝𝐨𝐜𝐮𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐫𝐲 𝐟𝐢𝐥𝐦𝐦𝐚𝐤𝐞𝐫 𝐰𝐡𝐨𝐬𝐞 𝐟𝐢𝐥𝐦𝐬 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐜𝐞𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐮𝐫 𝐄𝐦𝐦𝐲𝐬 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐧𝐮𝐦𝐞𝐫𝐨𝐮𝐬 𝐨𝐭𝐡𝐞𝐫 𝐚𝐰𝐚𝐫𝐝𝐬. 𝐈𝐧 𝐍𝐞𝐰 𝐘𝐨𝐫𝐤 𝐡𝐞 𝐰𝐚𝐬 𝐚 𝐬𝐞𝐫𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐩𝐫𝐨𝐝𝐮𝐜𝐞𝐫 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐖𝐍𝐄𝐓 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐚 𝐩𝐫𝐨𝐝𝐮𝐜𝐞𝐫 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐩𝐫𝐢𝐦𝐞-𝐭𝐢𝐦𝐞 𝐂𝐁𝐒 𝐍𝐞𝐰𝐬 𝐦𝐚𝐠𝐚𝐳𝐢𝐧𝐞 𝐩𝐫𝐨𝐠𝐫𝐚𝐦 𝟒𝟖 𝐇𝐎𝐔𝐑𝐒. 𝐈𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐔.𝐊. 𝐡𝐞 𝐰𝐨𝐫𝐤𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐚 𝐬𝐞𝐫𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐩𝐫𝐨𝐝𝐮𝐜𝐞𝐫 𝐚𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐁𝐁𝐂, 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐀𝐮𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐚𝐥𝐢𝐚 𝐡𝐞 𝐰𝐚𝐬 𝐚𝐧 𝐞𝐱𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞 𝐩𝐫𝐨𝐝𝐮𝐜𝐞𝐫 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐧𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐟𝐢𝐥𝐦 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐅𝐢𝐥𝐦 𝐀𝐮𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐚𝐥𝐢𝐚 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐀𝐁𝐂-𝐓𝐕.