CAIR’s Final Election Poll Shows Stein and Harris Still Tied Among Muslim Voters, Trump Trailing

CAIR’s poll of 1,449 verified Muslim voters conducted from Oct. 30 – Oct. 31 using a national voter file also shows that ten percent support former president Donald Trump (Republican Party), nearly the same as the 11% support he received in the August poll. Only five percent of respondents currently do not plan to vote, almost no voters remain undecided, and one percent support Chase Oliver (Libertarian Party). Based on a confidence interval of 95%, the margin of error is +/- 2.5 percentage points.

Candidate/Percent

Harris 41.0%
Trump 9.8%
West 0.1%
Stein 42.3%
Oliver 0.6%
Undecided 0.9%
Not Voting 5.4%
Total 100.0%

In a statement, CAIR National Executive Director Nihad Awad said:

“This final national poll of American Muslim voters confirms that our community members are deeply engaged in the 2024 election, with 95 percent saying they plan to turn out to vote. The poll also confirms that opposition to U.S. support for the war on Gaza continues to play a major role in influencing Muslim voter preferences. Our message for American Muslims is simple: regardless of who you plan to support, it is essential that you turn out to vote. Do not sit on the sidelines. Make your voices heard and show the strength of our community in states across our nation.”

In a statement, CAIR Government Affairs Director Robert S. McCaw said:

“Since CAIR’s last poll in late August, both Dr. Jill Stein and Vice President Harris have consolidated support among American Muslim voters and remain nearly tied at 42 percent and 41 percent while former president Donald Trump’s support remains static 10 percent. The significant drop in support for major presidential candidates compared to 2020 and 2016 is almost certainly a result of community concerns regarding the genocide in Gaza. We encourage all presidential candidates to address the concerns of Muslim voters in these final days of the campaign, and we encourage all American Muslim voters to turn out regardless of who they support.”

BACKGROUND:

As the 2024 national general election approaches, America’s estimated 2.5 million Muslim voters are positioned to once again play a crucial role in shaping the political landscape. With their significant presence in key swing states, Muslim voters have the potential to influence the outcomes of not only the presidential race but also numerous congressional, state, and local elections. This report is designed to provide a comprehensive overview of Muslim voters’ political inclinations and voting intentions in this pivotal election year.

In August CAIR released the August 25-27 presidential election survey of American Muslim voters

In September CAIR released a follow-up report will feature survey results showing which presidential candidates Muslim voters support more in the key battleground Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, having the potential to impact the outcome of the November election.

NOTE: As a 501(c)3 nonprofit, CAIR does not endorse or oppose candidates for office and makes no claims as to the favorability of one candidate being elected over another.

CAIR’s mission is to protect civil rights, enhance understanding of Islam, promote justice, and empower American Muslims.


https://www.cair.com/press_releases/breaking-cairs-final-election-poll-shows-stein-and-harris-still-tied-among-muslim-voters-trump-trailing/