What does a war with Lebanon and Iran mean for Gaza?

As Iran launched a barrage of hundreds of ballistic missiles toward Israel on Tuesday night, the people in Gaza’s shelters and displacement camps flooded the streets to watch the rockets rain down in the distance. Videos on social media showed the elated crowds cheering and celebrating, elated that, for once, they weren’t the ones being bombarded, and that it seemed as if the allies of the resistance had finally come to Gaza’s aid.

These feelings were mirrored on October 8, 2023, when Hezbollah opened a “support front” for Gaza in an attempt to divert a portion of Israel’s military forces to the north. As the Israeli onslaught evolved into a genocide, people in Gaza started hoping that Hezbollah would take an even more active role and enter the war fully in order to lessen the pressure on Gaza. Those hopes turned out to be misplaced, as the goals of the support front came to be one of attrition rather than an all-out war. 

For emotional reasons, Palestinians in Gaza continued to hope that the Lebanese resistance would enter the battle more fully in order to alleviate the people’s suffering and preoccupy the Israeli army.

The recent expansion of Israel’s war on Lebanon, however, has proven the exact opposite. While the army’s field presence in Gaza has been reduced, not only have the airstrikes on Gaza continued, but escalated.

Over the past week, while the world was preoccupied with the events in Lebanon, the Israeli army committed horrific massacres in Gaza in complete silence, with only modest coverage from international media.

Over the past week, while the world was preoccupied with the events in Lebanon, the Israeli army committed horrific massacres in Gaza in complete silence, with only modest coverage from international media. All eyes were now on Lebanon, even in Gaza.

Over the past week, the Israeli army bombed displacement centers in Gaza City, Jabalia, and Nuseirat refugee camp.

On September 26, the army bombed the Hafsa School in the Faluja area in northern Gaza, killing over 15 people. On September 22, the army bombed two schools in Nuseirat sheltering the displaced. A day before it, another massacre took place at the Zeitoun School in Gaza City, in which a member of Gaza’s Civil Defense held a lifeless fetus that had come out of its slain mother’s womb.

A video published by the Civil Defense stated that a mother, Iman Madi, had been displaced to the school carrying the fetus in her womb, which was buried alongside its mother in its seventh month. She was killed alongside 21 other people, including 12 children.

On September 29, the Israeli army bombed the Umm al-Fahm school in the northern Gaza Strip, which led to the immediate death of 10 displaced people.

Among these larger massacres, other smaller strikes have not stopped, including the bombing of houses over the heads of their residents.

Between September 21 and September 26, according to daily reports from the Ministry of Health in Gaza, the Israeli army committed 29 massacres in Gaza Strip, killing about 300 civilians and injuring hundreds more.

Separating the fronts and sliding toward forever war

A part of the reason for this reality is that the war in Lebanon started after the Israeli army had already degraded the military capabilities of the resistance in Gaza. Now Israel is able to maintain a military presence in Gaza without devoting the same military resources while escalating in Lebanon. 

Palestinian political analyst Alaa Abu Amer believes that the primary goal of the escalation is to separate the Gazan and Lebanese fronts in the war so that Israel is able to deal with each front on its own.

“Gaza has been forgotten, and all focus is now on southern Lebanon,” Abu Amer told Mondoweiss.

“After the Israeli army achieved its goals in Gaza, the strip was destroyed, and a genocide had taken place: the goals that remained were to be implemented through hunger and siege,” he continued. “[Israel] is attempting to deplete Gaza’s energies and frustrate attempts to incite resistance as a long-term goal. This plan is being arranged between the United States and other countries in the region, including Palestinian parties.”

“The front that was obstructing all of this was the South Lebanon front, the only card of power in Hamas’ hand to confront the Americans and the Zionists to achieve a political deal that would preserve the resistance and keep Gaza outside the framework of Zionist plans.”

“The equation is that Hezbollah in Lebanon will continue, Israel will continue, and Hamas will not surrender. This is a bloody battle that may draw in many unwilling parties, including countries on the periphery like Jordan.”

Abu Amer believes that Israel has no desire to engage in a long-term war of attrition. “The people of Israel are accustomed to living in luxury and have no affinity to this land,” he says. “Most of them came to Israel because of the material privileges they received. This society will not be able to endure for long after Israel gets involved in Lebanon.”

Analyst and Mondoweiss contributor Abdaljawad Omar believes that while the Israeli massacres in Gaza have continued, Israel won’t be able to carry them out at the same intensity as it did at the height of the genocide. 

“The shift of the weight of the battle to the north includes withdrawing some forces from the Gaza Strip, which means reducing the bombing in Gaza,” Abdaljawad Omar tells Mondoweiss. “But the Israeli army is still capable of carrying out ground operations and any other military operations inside the Strip.”

“The occupying army now has the opportunity, since the northern front is open, to carry out massacres without raising complaints from the international community, whose concerns are elsewhere,” he says.

“Since the beginning of the war in Gaza and the start of the Lebanese support front, Israel has launched a deliberate and expanded war that aims to create a radically different reality in Gaza,” he continues.

But imposing such a reality requires a long-term war and continuous escalation. 

“This will exact a a heavy cost from Israel, both militarily and economically,” Omar says.

But it also means that a bloody cost will be paid by the resistance in Gaza and Lebanon, in addition to their popular base.

The result is that there is no clear horizon for the end of the war. Israel has confidence in its military capabilities and in the ability of its allies to pump weapons and diplomatic and political support at the right moment. 

“Perhaps no one wants a comprehensive war that brings together all forces into an all-out regional war,” Omar says. “But Israel is waging a long war with different fronts. The point is that it wants to deal with each front separately, but also hopes that its allies will join in, dragging the U.S. into another Middle East war.”