A Discussion of 2024 SCENARIOS (A SKETCH), AND THE CHALLENGES by Bob Avakian

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Looking ahead, over the course of this year—and specifically as things are very likely to be focused, to a very great extent, in relation to the 2024 election—the following are (not the only possible but are realistically possible) scenarios that need to be anticipated, not in some abstract sense but specifically in terms of the necessity and challenges we will face as things unfold, from the standpoint of the urgently needed repolarization for revolution.

* The Democrats win the presidential election—and the Republicans refuse to accept the results, with everything that would imply.

* The Republicans win—“legitimately,” or at least in a way that is ruled “legal.” This is probably the worst-case scenario. In one important dimension, it would pose very sharply the need for overcoming the spontaneity, among significant numbers of people opposed to the Republi-fascists that “nothing can be done” (“what can you do?”). At the same time, along with mass discontent, there would very likely be “spontaneous” mass outpouring of opposition, and the phenomenon spoken to in Revolution—Building Up The Basis To Go For The Whole Thing, With A Real Chance To Win: Strategic Orientation And Practical Approach (and cited shortly below here) of different organized forces in the field, seeking to take things in different directions.

*There is no election—with all the tumult, chaos, etc., that would accompany this scenario.

Once again, in relation to all of these (and other possible) scenarios, the challenge will be repolarization—for revolution. (In this regard, it is important to cast away illusions and keep in mind that, especially if the Republi-fascists do win the election, there would be people whom you might expect to be opposed to the fascists who would instead actually rally to their camp—including some basic oppressed people—and this emphasizes from yet another angle the crucial importance of repolarization, for revolution, through ferocious ideological struggle, as well as concrete action, all along the way, as well as specifically in those particular circumstances.)

Read the whole article here:https://revcom.us/en#scenarios