A Simple Algorithm Shows All Global Warming Temperatures

It turned out in the summer of 2023 that the forecasts of – awarded the Nobel Prize – the UN IPCC scientific panel could already be consigned to the bad archive of history. In terms of global temperature rise, it is much worse than expected. A linear extrapolation of the trend from 2000 to 2023 would result in a value reaching 3 *C of warming of the Earth's surface at the end of the 21st century. The maximum level indicated was 4.5 *C, but this is far here from a linear propagation of the phenomenon. In 2023, we can talk about the development of an increase in this temperature to at least 10 *C plus, and maybe up to 17 *C plus after the full melting of undersea and land methane hydrates (CH4 clathrates).

It turned out that the average rate of global temperature increase from the 20th century – 0.8 *C / 100 years – was compensated four times over time – to 0.7 *C / 23 years. Media reported that the GMST temperature level reached 17 *C in July 2023. Growth charts from the level of 15.5 *C are also shown – this was GMST for the 20th century (CA-GMST-XX = +1.5 *C to MP-GMST-7-2023, DP-GMST-1900 – YP-GMST-2020 = + 1.3 *C, DP-GMST-1900 – MP-GMST-7-2023 = + 2.0 *C / DP etc. = Century Average, Decade, Year, Month Points).

It also turns out that after averaging global temperature changes in decade packages (Decade Points), it is possible to describe the process of their progress – current and future (20th and 21st centuries) – using a simple mathematical algorithm (such as E = mc2). Without resorting to complicated, expensive and diverse numerical climate models (there are several of them). One of the component processes of global warming clearly dominates the others, and until it is complemented by another dangerous effect, this primary process will dictate thermal conditions on our planet.

The global warming graph shows a curve that is a "breakline", not an "arc". This is due to the solar activity fluctuations superimposing on the planet's warming arc. Of course, this influence is not direct, but takes place via the ion-cloud mechanism. Knowing the changes in our star's activity from other charts, we can filter this breakout from the picture of combined anthropogenic and solar warming (the importance of which is rapidly decreasing). This provides greater accuracy in matching and predicting the GMST temperature increase based only on the arc of changes (GMST = Global Mean Surface Temperature).

The mentioned algorithm can count and match any willing citizen. It is of the type: T(d) = pT(d – 1), where "T" is the GMST temperature at the decadal point (average for the decade), and "p" is a parameter in the range of about 1.25 - 1.30. Most likely p = 1.26 and may be slightly modified. The letter "d" denotes a decade point in the timeline, and "d - 1" indicates the previous such point (e.g. 1960 and 1950). I present the points of the graph starting from 0.30 *C of warming for 1950 (p = 1.26): 60 = 0.38; 70 = 0.48; 80 = 0.60; 90 = 0.76; 2000 = 0.95; 10 = 1.20; 20 = 1.51; 30 = 1.90; 40 = 2.40; 50 = 3.03; 60 = 3.81; 70 = 4.80; 80 = 6.05; 90 = 7.63; 2100 = 9.61; 10 = 12.1; 2120 = 15.3 [*C].

Scientists warn that once global warming exceeds 2 *C (a mythical-critical value), this process will no longer stop. Therefore, automatic forces will be activated, which in feedback will drive global warming, as it were, automatically and autonomously. However, it is not true that after achieving zero emissions in our civilization – which is only theoretically possible –the CO2 concentration will drop quickly immediately. In a dynamic equilibrium system –which is the Earth's atmosphere in balance with the biosphere and hydrosphere – the concentration of carbon dioxide can only decrease in the same way as it increased. That is, in small annual packages for the next few decades of the 21st century.

In this context, billions of people around the world are at risk of dying from hunger and thirst. And the ideology of developmentism and uncritical consumerism would be the greatest crimes against humanity in the history of the world and the planet (not nazism and communism).