US-Iraq security agreement set to be ratified

The agreement is likely to be ratified. In the parliament, it is supported by the member-parties of the Shiite fundamentalist coalition—the United Iraqi Alliance (UIA)—which dominates Maliki's government. It is also supported by the Kurdish nationalist parties and by the Iraqi National List, a coalition headed by the party of Iyad Allawi, who was installed as interim Iraqi prime minister in 2004. Combined, these blocs have a majority in the 225-seat legislature.

The largest Sunni Arab-based grouping, the Iraqi Islamic Party, is still officially calling for a popular referendum to ratify the security agreement but is expected to use the week-long debate in parliament to fall into line and vote yes, in exchange for various political concessions and pay-offs.

The only significant opposition is coming from the Shiite movement led by cleric Moqtada al-Sadr, which still has a broad following among the Shiite working class and urban poor. It is doubtful, however, that it will be able to garner sufficient parliamentary support to vote down the pact.