Somali forces take strategic town

Ethiopian and Somali government forces are advancing towards Somalia's capital Mogadishu, which is currently held by the Union of Islamic Courts (UIC).

Earlier, they seized the strategic town of Jowhar, 90 km from the capital, from Islamist militias during a dawn attack.

At the weekend Ethiopia began a major offensive against the UIC, which held much of central and southern Somalia.

Jowhar is a former UIC stronghold, and its loss leaves the Islamists with control of little more than the coast.

The Ethiopian and pro-government Somali troops are reported to be only 30 km from Mogadishu.

In Jowhar, residents told the BBC they had seen government forces riding on top of Ethiopian armoured vehicles in Jowhar.

The UIC still holds Mogadishu, and the southern port city of Kismayo.

Leaders of the militia have admitted pulling out of many towns. Reports suggest that the Islamists evacuated many towns without putting up a fight.

Commanders absent

The UIC's two most senior military commanders - the defence chief, Yusuf Indade, and his deputy, Abu Mansur - are currently both on the Hajj pilgrimage in Mecca.

On Tuesday Ethiopia said it had repelled the militia from the seat of Somalia's transitional government in Baidoa, but the UIC said the pull-out was tactical and the group was "getting ready for a long war".

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Ethiopia's Prime Minister, Meles Zenawi, claimed that his country was halfway to winning its war against Somalia's Islamic Courts militias as his troops began to march towards the capital, Mogadishu.

He said yesterday that Ethiopian troops had "broken the back" of the Union of Islamic Courts, which were now, he said, in full retreat. "We have already completed half of our missions," he added, "and as soon as we finish the second half, our troops will leave Somalia."

Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed, one of the main leaders of the Islamic Courts, admitted that his troops had withdrawn from some areas, but hinted at a change in tactics to counter Ethiopia's superior firepower. "The war is entering a new phase," he said. "We will fight Ethiopia for a long, long time and we expect the war to go every place."

Somalia has already experienced its first two suicide attacks this autumn, with car bombs going off in Baidoa, the seat of the weak transitional government. Some of the Courts' more hardline leaders have threatened to carry out similar attacks in Ethiopia's capital, Addis Ababa.

The Islamic Courts, which control most of southern and central Somalia, including Mogadishu, have been under heavy attack since fighting broke out eight days ago. Ethiopian jets bombed Mogadishu airport on Christmas Day and Mr Meles claimed that more than 1,000 soldiers aligned with the Courts' militias have now been killed.

The Islamists claim they too have killed hundreds of Ethiopian and Somali government troops. Neither claim has been independently verified. The Red Cross said that its hospitals and clinics in Somalia have treated al least 800 people - civilians and combatants.

The Somali government envoy to Ethiopia claimed yesterday that Ethiopian troops could capture Mogadishu within days, although analysts in the region think an attack is unlikely. The interim government has little military firepower or expertise of its own. Without the support of Ethiopia, analysts say, the government would have been severely outgunned by the Islamists.

If Ethiopia makes good its promise to leave Somalia once its objectives have been fulfilled it may be difficult for the government - which is increasingly unpopular outside Baidoa - to hold on to the towns the Ethiopians have helped them take.

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MOGADISHU — Somalia could be a quagmire for Ethiopian troops attacking the de facto ruling Islamic Courts which has vowed a years-long guerrilla war against the military juggernaut of the invaders, analysts believe.

"The Ethiopians could get bogged down into a hopeless, long-term guerrilla campaign with enormous supply lines," David Shinn, the former US ambassador to Ethiopia, told The Los Angeles Times on Tuesday, December2006 .

Shinn warned a longer Ethiopian offensive in Somalia means a complete rout for Addis Ababa.

"I don't see how they 'defeat' the Islamists in the long run."

A day after Ethiopian warplanes bombarded airports in Mogadishu and another outside the capital, the Islamic Courts of Somalia (SICS) fighters retreated Tuesday from several frontline positions after withering attacks.

The SICS said retreat from Dinsoor and Burhakaba, south and east of the Somali government base of Baidoa, is a military tactic to prepare for a long-term hit-and-run war against Ethiopia, vastly superior in conventional military terms.

"We are ready to start long-lasting war with Ethiopia," Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed, the head of the SICS Executive Committee, told a press conference.

"We are in a new stage of resistance. The enemy has started using air forces. Since we don't have heavy weapons to defend ourselves in this full-scale attack by the Meles forces, we have decided to change our tactics," he added, referring to Ethiopian Prime Minister Meles Zenawi.

"I don't understand what Ethiopia's objective is," said Shinn, a political science professor at George Washington University.

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