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Battle of the Ballot: Mexican Election’s Legitimacy in Question
A month since the July 2 Presidential election produced a virtual tie, Mexico is in full crisis. By a mere 0.58% of the total vote, the Federal Electoral Institute (IFE) declared Felipe Calderón, the candidate of the ruling conservative party (PAN), to be president-elect. The center-left PRD candidate, Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO)– both in the courts and in the streets–has vigorously challenged the validity of the official count, and claims the whole electoral process was illegitimately weighted towards Calderón’s win. Millions of AMLO’s supporters took to the streets, and despite weeks of rain, hundreds of thousands are permanently occupying the core of Mexico City in a nonviolent campaign to press for a full recount.
On August 5, the Supreme Electoral Tribunal denied the PRD’s appeal for a vote-by-vote recount, and instead opted for what some senators called “the worst of all possible outcomes”: by the Tribunal’s decree, 9% of the ballots will be recounted, primarily from PAN-governed states. By ordering a recount the Tribunal has conceded the election was corrupt; however, since only a fraction of the ballots will be recounted, the legitimacy of the “victor” will be permanently tainted. Meanwhile, AMLO declared he will continue his tactics of “peaceful civil resistance” to force a full recount or, as a last resort, a nullification of the election.
Outside the Tribunal’s doors, an indignant crowd ominously shouted: “If there is no solution, there will be revolution!” Revolution or not, this election’s North/South split is evidence of two Mexicos: a wealthier north more allied with the United States and neoliberal economic development, and a poorer south with more in common with the burgeoning popular movements now spreading across Latin America. The clash of these competing visions seems bound to spark a genuine social upheaval in Mexico, one which not even AMLO or the PRD may be capable of controlling.
Outside the Tribunal’s doors, an indignant crowd ominously shouted: “If there is no solution, there will be revolution!” Revolution or not, this election’s North/South split is evidence of two Mexicos: a wealthier north more allied with the United States and neoliberal economic development, and a poorer south with more in common with the burgeoning popular movements now spreading across Latin America. The clash of these competing visions seems bound to spark a genuine social upheaval in Mexico, one which not even AMLO or the PRD may be capable of controlling.
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