Who Won? Mexican Elections Too Close to Call, Both Candidates Claim Victory

"I'm a bit unsettled by the lapse of time, because the IFE (Mexico’s Federal Electoral Institute) is taking its time in giving the results," says Noé Hernández, who served on the consulting committee of the Institute of Mexicans Abroad until last December.

"It's a shame. It's sad that they would declare the winner when IFE has not declared a winner," Hernández says, referring to the two frontrunners, who both announced victory late Sunday night.

IFE officials said they would wait to declare a winner until a recount is performed July 7.

Ruling party candidate Felipe Calderón, of the National Action Party or PAN, declared Monday that his 370,000-vote lead over rival Andrés Manuel López Obrador of the Democratic Revolutionary Party or PRD, was insurmountable.

But López Obrador refused to concede, claiming he had won and even saying in a television appearance he would not rule out street protests.

Hernández believes the reason for the delay in announcing a winner is that negotiations are now taking place between the three political parties.

"It's so they can split the power in the Republica de México," Hernández says.

With such a high percentage of the vote in, Hernández believes IFE could easily declare a winner.

"If they say that Calderón won, then tomorrow the López Obrador followers will take to the streets," says Hernández. "This is a very tense moment in Mexico."

This is why he believes the behind-the-scenes negotiations are an attempt to offer López Obrador some type of high-ranking government position. Otherwise, Hernández says there is a potential for social, political and economic revolution.

"And revolution is not good for anyone," he adds.

Mexico’s split vote did not surprise James R. Jones, former U.S. ambassador to Mexico.

"I thought it would either be López Obrador by three or four points, or it could be a Calderón win by one point,” says Jones. “No one could predict how much support López Obrador had among poor people, and how the 15 percent undecided would split. I thought it would split for Calderón," he says.

The only problem that could arise, Jones says, is if enough poll watchers report significant irregularities in the voting or counting, leading López Obrador and the PRD to challenge the election.

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